![]() Similarly, in the domain of geopolitics, experts often perform at chance levels when forecasting occurrences of specific political events 4. For example, portfolio managers (who are paid for their expertise) do not outperform the stock market in their predictions 3. Yet research on predictions in many domains suggests that experts may not be better than purely stochastic models in predicting the future. The media also seek out experts to render their judgements and opinions about what to expect in the future 1, 2. ![]() However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.Ĭan social scientists predict societal change? Governments and the general public often rely on experts, on the basis of a general belief that they make better judgements and predictions of the future in their domain of expertise. ![]() Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public ( N = 802). After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1 N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2 N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). The origins of this now iconic dish are complex and highly debated, yet one thing remains clear without the influence of Hunan Province cuisine and Chinese immigration to North America, this dish would never have been able to make its way onto our plates and into our hearts.How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. This dish has been transformed and adapted in endless different ways, has traversed the entire world, and has made its way onto our website with our own RICARDO versions. To his surprise, Americans already knew about a version of his famous recipe. Knowing the palate of American diners, Chef Wang added a crispier batter to the chicken as well as sugar to the sauce.Īs the story goes, sometime later, Chef Peng Chang-kuei left his native Taiwan for America in pursuit of the American dream. The arrival of the dish in AmericaĪ man named Tsung Ting Wang, a New York chef, said to be responsible for the popularization of Sichuan cuisine in the United States, stumbled upon General Tso chicken during a culinary trip to Taiwan. Hence the appearance of “General Tso chicken” on the menus of restaurants at the time. It turns out that Chef Peng Chang-kuei was also from Hunan Province and was made ambassador of a chicken recipe with a spicy-sour sauce, called General Tao. Zuo Zongtang, also known as General Tso in the United States, was a well-known military man from Hunan Province in China. ![]() ![]() General Tao was a real person, but he was not a chef. So, it wasn’t General Tao himself who created this recipe? Not quite. The dish’s origins go back to Chinese culinary practices, along with their many regional influences, but its popularity certainly stems in part from the adaptation for North American palates created in New York in the 1970s from the original recipe of the late chef Peng Chang-kuei. ![]()
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